India could see around 55,000 additional heat-related deaths between October 2026 and March 2027, most of them in March. So says the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab, which warns that much of the toll of this super El Niño will fall on the Global South.
The lab’s September report, which stopped at February, had put India at 15,800. Worldwide, it now projects 857,000 additional deaths from June 2026 to March 2027, against 451,000 to February.
The revision reflects two things. March is now included, and August and September came in far hotter than forecast: the warmest August on record, the second-warmest September, both more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
From October to March, Nigeria faces around 56,000 deaths and India 55,000, out of 373,000 worldwide.
The researchers say heat like this, and deaths on this scale, could be commonplace in about 20 years. Their new tracker forecasts deaths state by state, six months ahead. The Modi government has the warning in hand. If our workers die in the March heat, El Niño will not be the only killer.
Source: Down To Earth, 29 October 2026 — https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/super-el-ni%C3%B1o-could-cause-55000-additional-heat-related-deaths-in-india-by-march-2027
