The World Will Cross 1.5°C, Says UN. Today’s Policies Lead to 2.8°C.

In 2015, at Paris, governments promised to hold warming well below 2°C, ideally 1.5°C. More than a decade later, the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026 says the breach of 1.5°C is now unavoidable.
Its best case peaks at 1.7–1.8°C around mid-century and returns to 1.5°C by 2100, with only a 50% chance. That needs emissions to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 from 2025 levels, plus carbon removal of uncertain feasibility. Today’s pledges, fully delivered, cut just 5–8% and 11–15%. Current policies lead to 2.8°C; kept pledges, 2.6°C.
For India, already exposed to extreme heat and floods, every fraction of a degree matters. India emitted about 4.5 billion tonnes in 2025, China 16.1 and the US 6. Per head, India is at 3.1 tonnes, the world 6.4, the US 17.6.
Non-fossil sources are 52.57% of India’s installed capacity, yet coal still supplied almost 71% of the electricity. Nameplate megawatts do not light homes; generated units do.
The rich nations must pay their climate debt. The Modi government must stop hiding coal behind capacity figures.
Source: India Today, 25 October 2026 — https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story/unep-emissions-gap-report-2026-paris-agreement-climate-change-india-3024200-2026-10-25