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A $50 Billion El Niño Bill for India in 2027, and the Poor Will Pay It

Climate change is now a bill, and it is heading for India.

The Allianz Climate Economics Report 2026 says extreme weather caused about $210 billion of global losses in 2025. That was below the $307 billion of 2024, but still roughly 20% above the 2000–2019 average. Heatwaves across 30 European countries are projected to cut output by €113 billion, about $128 billion, in 2026.

For India the warning is sharper. Using the 2023–24 El Niño as its benchmark, Allianz estimates a strong El Niño could cut global output by about $451 billion in 2027 across 144 economies. China ($147 billion), the US ($91 billion) and India ($50 billion) would carry nearly 60% of it. That is heat alone, with floods, droughts and wildfires not even counted. Food inflation would rise by 0.65 percentage points.

For India this means lost working hours, dearer food and thinner household budgets. Yet the Modi government keeps clearing forests and opening coal for its corporate friends, with no serious plan to shield workers and farmers from heat. Adaptation is not charity. It is survival.

Source: ETClimate, 4 October 2026 — https://climate.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/climate-policy-regulations/europes-heatwaves-and-indias-el-nio-risk-turn-climate-into-an-economic-test/134674602